Fall Isn't Too Late to Sell. It's Just a Different Market.

The national "fall is busy" headline gets one thing right and one thing wrong. Here's how it actually plays out in Costa Mesa and Newport Beach.

If you spent the summer going back and forth on listing, you haven't missed your chance. But the reason fall still works here isn't the one you'll see in national headlines.

The stat everyone's sharing, and its fine print

A chart making the rounds this month shows that about a third of U.S. existing-home sales close between September and December. That share has also grown every year since 2023. It's accurate. It's also a closings number.

A home that closes in October usually went into escrow in August or September. So a strong fall closing count says a lot about summer buyers. It says much less about who will show up to your open house in November.

Here's how we'd think about it instead. Watch pending sales, meaning homes going into escrow right now. That's the honest read on fall demand.

What Orange County looks like heading into fall

Here's the short version: there are fewer buyers than usual, but also fewer homes competing for them.

The mid-August Reports on Housing snapshot for Orange County showed 1,535 pending sales. That was the lowest mid-August reading since tracking began in 2004. Inventory had leveled off around 5,000 homes. From here, supply and demand typically ease together until the holiday slowdown.

That's not a reason to wait for spring. Spring brings more buyers, but it also brings a wave of new listings. Selling in fall means a smaller crowd but a shorter line.

Price changes the whole story

Orange County isn't one market. It behaves like two, split roughly between $1.5 million and $2 million.

Under $1.5 million: In July, closed sales from $1 million to $1.5 million sold at 100% of list in about two weeks. Well-priced homes in this range still move quickly, even with softer demand. The catch is that overall market time in these bands is running slower than a year ago. A listing priced too high tends to sit.

Above $2 million: Most bands closed at roughly 97% to 98% of list, so buyers have room to negotiate. The better news is that the $2 million to $4 million range is moving noticeably faster than it was last fall. Luxury pending sales also jumped in mid-August.

Costa Mesa and Newport Beach are not the same fall

Costa Mesa sits right at that dividing line, with a median list price near $1.5 million. Its expected market time was about 70 days, well ahead of the countywide 99. Of 112 active listings, 48 were already in escrow. That's a healthy ratio for this time of year.

Newport Beach runs on a different clock. Citywide, expected market time was around 152 days, with a median list price near $4.8 million. Corona del Mar was moving much faster at about 90 days. Newport Coast was closer to 169. In our experience, that spread is exactly why a Newport listing needs a pricing plan built around its specific neighborhood, not the city average.

What we tell fall sellers

The countywide 99-day market time looks slow. But the homes that are actually selling are going in a few weeks. The gap is mostly listings still priced for last spring.

• Price to the most recent closings, not the spring peak or an online estimate.
• Aim to be live well before Thanksgiving. The holiday stretch is the slowest part of the year, and fall buyers are often trying to get settled before it.
• Above $2 million, plan for negotiation. A realistic first price usually beats a string of reductions.

I've seen fall buyers turn out to be some of the most decisive of the year. There are fewer of them, but the ones touring homes in October generally mean it.

Thinking about listing before the holidays?

If you're weighing a fall sale, or just want an honest read on what your home could do in this market, we'd love to talk. No pressure, no pitch.

Bernice Devries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group | Costa Mesa & Newport Beach