Orange County Homes Are Taking 99 Days to Sell. Or 11.

The county average is one of the least useful numbers in real estate right now, and the August data shows exactly why.

The national housing report for August described a market finally in balance: five months of supply, homes going pending in 51 days, sellers netting about 98% of list. Orange County's average market time is 99 days, which sounds twice as slow. The average is hiding something important.

What the sold report actually shows

Market time measures every active listing, including the ones that have been sitting since spring at a price nobody agreed to. The sold report measures homes that found a buyer.

In July, homes that closed between $1.25 million and $1.5 million took a median of 11 days and sold at 100% of list price. The $1 million to $1.25 million band closed in 14 days, also at 100%. The $750,000 to $1 million tier was the only segment countywide that closed above asking on a dollar-weighted basis.

So there aren't slow segments and fast segments. There are homes priced where the market is and homes priced where the seller hoped it would be, and the second group is what's dragging the average toward triple digits.

The tiers are moving in opposite directions

Here's the part that should reset anyone's assumptions from six months ago.

The entry-level market got slower. Homes under $750,000 are running about 100 days, compared with 55 days a year ago. The $1.25 million to $2 million range moved from 66 days to 89.

Luxury got faster. The $2.5 million to $4 million segment improved from 180 days a year ago to 111 today. The $2 million to $2.5 million tier went from 155 to 103. Above $2.5 million, inventory shrank while pending sales jumped 13% in two weeks.

That's a near-perfect inversion of the market we all described in 2024 and early 2025.

Why the bottom of the market stalled

Rates are part of it. The bigger part is what entry-level product costs to carry.

Most homes at the low end of coastal Orange County are attached: condos and townhomes. Those buyers are underwriting HOA dues that have climbed with insurance premiums, reserve funding, and deferred maintenance. Salt air doesn't help. A Balboa Peninsula or Corona del Mar building cycles through railings, roofs, and waterproofing faster than the same building in Tustin.

California Civil Code §5551 adds another layer. Condo associations have to inspect wood-supported balconies, decks, walkways, and stairs on a recurring nine-year cycle, and the findings feed the reserve study. Repairs get funded through a dues increase or a special assessment. A buyer running payment math at current rates sees all of it.

In my experience, that's where entry-level deals stall now. Not on the list price, on the HOA packet.

Costa Mesa and Newport are not the same market

Costa Mesa is carrying 112 active listings against 48 pending sales, with a market time of 70 days and a median asking price around $1.5 million. That's meaningfully faster than the county.

Newport Beach has 254 active listings against 50 pending, a 152-day market time, and a median asking price near $4.8 million. Corona del Mar sits at 90 days. Newport Coast, with 45 listings and 8 pendings, runs 169.

Same county, same week, wildly different conditions. Which is why a countywide headline is close to useless for deciding what to do with your house.

What we tell sellers this month

Price to the sold report, not to the actives. Your competition on the market includes homes that have already proven their price doesn't work. Matching them is how you join them.

Above $1 million, closings are running below list on a dollar-weighted basis. That gap is negotiable room you're giving away by starting high and correcting later. The homes closing at 100% of list in under two weeks got there by being right on day one.

What we tell buyers

If you're shopping above $2 million, you have less room than you did a year ago and the trend is against you. Inventory is thinning in that tier and demand is picking up.

If you're looking at condos, the leverage is real. Read the reserve study, the inspection report, and the minutes before you fall in love with the unit.

The county numbers here come from the August 17 Reports on Housing release by Steven Thomas, built on CRMLS data.

If you want to know which of these numbers actually applies to your street, that's worth a conversation. We're happy to walk through it with no expectations.

Bernice Devries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group — Costa Mesa & Newport Beach