Are Buyers Still Buying? In Costa Mesa, Yes. In Newport Beach, It Depends.

 

The national headlines say demand is holding up. Orange County's numbers tell a more specific story, and the dividing line is about $1.5 million.

There's a story going around that buyer demand has been more resilient than expected. Nationally, that's true. Locally, it's true for about half of you.

The national number and the local number disagree

Pending sales are the cleanest read on demand. A home under contract means someone made a decision, not that someone browsed on a Sunday.

National single-family pending sales are running ahead of the last two years, which is a real thing and worth knowing. But Orange County pending demand sits at 1,637 as of the latest report. Last year at the same point: 1,633.

That's flat. Not up, not down. Four contracts apart across an entire county.

So the national story isn't wrong. It's just not about us.

The number that actually matters is your price

Here's what the county-level figure hides. Orange County isn't one market right now. It's two, and they're behaving in opposite directions.

Between $750K and $1.5M, homes are moving in 57 to 65 days and closing at 100% of list or better. That's the strongest segment in the county. Buyers there aren't negotiating much because they can't. There isn't enough to choose from.

Above $2M, the picture inverts. Expected market time stretches to 101 days at $2M to $2.5M, 140 days from $2.5M to $4M, and 229 days between $4M and $6M. Sales-to-list slips to 98.6% and keeps sliding. At $6M and up, sellers are landing roughly $396,000 below asking.

Same county. Same month. Completely different conversation.

What this looks like on the ground

Costa Mesa is in good shape. 45 homes pending against 111 active listings, 74 days expected market time, and a sales-to-list ratio of exactly 100% on a $1.45M median. Priced right, Costa Mesa homes are selling for what they ask.

Newport Beach is the fourth-slowest city in the county at 177 days, more than double the countywide 83. 278 homes active, 47 pending. Corona del Mar is at 133 days and 97.8% of list on a $3.81M median. Newport Coast, 123 days and 96.5%.

None of that is a crisis. Buyers are still transacting in Newport. They're just doing it on a longer clock with more room to negotiate, and a seller who plans around a Costa Mesa timeline is going to have a rough summer.

The part nobody puts in a headline

2,939 Orange County homes came off the market through May without selling. That's up 13% from last year.

Those weren't homes nobody wanted. They were homes priced for a market that isn't here anymore. The buyers looked, did the math, and moved on to something better positioned.

That's the honest version of "demand is resilient." Buyers are active and they're disciplined. Both things at once.

Here's how we'd think about it

If you're under $1.5M, the national optimism roughly applies to you. Price it correctly and you'll likely find your buyer inside 60 days. The competition is thin and the demand is real.

If you're over $2M, plan for a longer runway and price against actual comparable sales, not against what your neighbor is asking. The listings sitting for 140 days are almost never the ones that started reasonable.

Above $4M, this is a negotiation from the first day. Homes at that level are averaging 229 days. Your pricing strategy and your patience matter more than your finish carpentry.

The full Orange County Housing Report from Steven Thomas breaks this down every two weeks, and it's worth a look if you like reading the data yourself. The California Association of Realtors tracks the statewide view alongside it.

Where we land

Buyers haven't disappeared. In Costa Mesa they never really left. In Newport Beach above $2M they're present, patient, and holding most of the cards.

What we tell clients is that the market doesn't have one answer right now. It has a price band, and your price band decides which market you're actually selling into.

If you're weighing a move this year and want an honest read on where your home falls, we'd love to talk. No pressure, no pitch.

Bernice Devries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group — Costa Mesa & Newport Beach