Rates Are Near a 2026 High. Coastal OC Demand Went Up Anyway.

What the national numbers miss: whether this market feels hot or patient depends almost entirely on your price.

The national housing story this month reads like a contradiction. Mortgage rates are sitting near the top of their 2026 range, and buyer demand keeps posting year-over-year gains regardless. Locally, the same thing is happening, with one important wrinkle the headlines skip.

Demand here didn't flinch

Pending sales across Orange County hit 1,667 over the prior 30 days in late May, up about 3% from the same point last year. That runs against everything you'd expect with rates climbing.

This is not a market under stress. Of all closed sales, 99.9% were equity sellers. Countywide, there were nine distressed listings total, foreclosures and short sales combined, which works out to roughly 0.2% of everything for sale. Nobody is being forced to sell.

Inventory tells the same story. There are about 4,475 homes on the market, down 3% from a year ago and still around 42% below the pre-pandemic norm of 6,370. The shortage built into coastal OC is doing most of the work holding prices up, not buyer frenzy. (Reports on Housing, CRMLS data)

The part the national read misses: OC is two markets

The countywide sales-to-list ratio is 100.0%. On paper, that says sellers everywhere are getting full asking. The reality is split.

Below $1.5M, this is a seller's market. Homes in that range are closing at full price, with median days on market running around 10 to 12. Price it right and it moves fast.

Above $2.5M, buyers have room. Homes in the $2.5M to $4M band are closing closer to 98.7% of list. Past $6M, that slips toward 95.6%, and the pace to clear that inventory stretches into months. Same county, opposite experience, and the line between them is the price.

For context, the national data this month shows about one in three homes cutting price before it sells. Below $1.5M here, full asking is just normal.

If you're selling in Costa Mesa

Costa Mesa has cooled, and we'd rather you hear it straight. The median active list price sits near $1.7M, and the expected time to sell current inventory has stretched to about 82 days, up from 49 a year ago. Still healthy, no longer instant.

The split holds at the city level too. Well-priced homes under $1.5M are still moving in well under two weeks at full price. The listings that sit are almost always the ones reaching for a number the comparable sales don't support. In our experience, the single biggest lever on an Eastside or Mesa Verde sale right now is honest pricing out of the gate, not a bigger marketing budget.

If you're in Newport, Corona del Mar, or Newport Coast

This is the patient end of the market. Newport Beach is carrying a median active list near $4.8M and an expected market time around 179 days. Corona del Mar sits near 133 days, Newport Coast around 123 at a $12.5M median.

If you're buying up here, that's good news. You have time, and you have room to negotiate. If you're selling, the homes that close are the ones priced to current reality and shown well, not the ones priced to last cycle's optimism.

One honest caveat: slow is relative. Most of these luxury pockets are actually faster than a year ago. Corona del Mar was at 180 days last year. Newport Coast was near 293 two years ago. The runway is long, but it's shortening.

The rate question, answered plainly

Demand has been easing since late February as rates ticked up alongside the Iran headlines. The county-level read is that broad demand stays capped until rates get close to 6%. With a median-priced OC home now eating about 71% of median household income in monthly payment, that math is real.

Here's what we'd add. The word that matters is broad. The sub-$1.5M tier is moving anyway, because the people in it need to move and aren't waiting for a perfect rate that may not come this year. Life events don't check the 10-year yield first.

Where that leaves you

If you've been sitting on a maybe, the useful question isn't "are rates good." It's "which of these two markets is mine." The answer changes the whole strategy.

If you want an honest read on where your home lands and what that means for timing, we'd love to talk it through. No pressure, no pitch.

Bernice DeVries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group — Costa Mesa & Newport Beach