The Buyer's Summer Is Real. It Just Starts at $2 Million.

 

 

More listings and softer asking prices are showing up nationally. Around here, the negotiating room is sitting somewhere else entirely.

The national housing story this summer is simple: more homes for sale, lower asking prices, better odds for buyers. Coastal Orange County is running the opposite play, and knowing that changes where you should be looking.

The national numbers are real

Realtor.com put the national median asking price at $430,000 in June, roughly $11,000 under the year before, and the eighth month running that asking prices came in below the prior year. New listings hit 463,480, the strongest June since 2022. (Source article)

Two things need separating. Those are asking prices, not sale prices. And that 463,480 figure still sits well under the 539,000 to 557,000 range the country posted in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

So the national read is fair. Sellers in a lot of markets are pricing to draw offers, and buyers have more to choose from than they did three years ago.

California went the other direction

Here's where it breaks.

The California Association of Realtors found active listings across the state down 10.4% from June 2025. That was the fifth straight month of annual declines and the steepest drop since December 2023. Statewide, months of unsold inventory fell from 3.8 to 3.1.

Orange County tightened more than the state. Unsold inventory here sits at 2.8 months, down from 3.4 a year ago. Reports on Housing counted 4,697 active listings in early July, about 3% under last year and roughly 43% below the county's 2017 to 2019 average.

Fewer homes, not more. And county home values are up about 1.2% over the past year, not down.

The room to negotiate moved up the price ladder

This is the part worth reading twice.

Nationally, the softness showed up at the low end. In California, C.A.R. found sales gains concentrated in entry-level and mid-tier homes while higher-priced sales pulled back for a second straight month.

Orange County shows that same split, and it's sharp. Reports on Housing tracks it using expected market time, which is how long it would take to sell every current listing at today's pace of demand. It is not the same thing as days on market for one house.

• $1M to $1.25M: about 65 days, with the median sale closing roughly $17,000 above the median list price
• $2M to $2.5M: about 103 days, with the median sale closing roughly $46,500 under median list
• Above $4M: more than 200 days

The give in this market isn't at the bottom. It's at the top.

Costa Mesa and Newport Beach aren't the same market

One line of data tells you most of it.

Costa Mesa carries about 103 active listings against 43 pending sales, which works out to roughly 72 days of expected market time. Faster than the county as a whole.

Newport Beach carries 277 actives against 45 pendings, or about 185 days. Corona del Mar runs around 124. Newport Coast, 288.

What we tell clients: if you're shopping Eastside or Mesa Verde near the county median, plan to compete. Well-priced homes in that band still draw multiple offers, and waiting for a discount that isn't coming costs you houses.

If you're shopping a $3M place on the Peninsula or in Corona del Mar, you have time. Use it. Ask how long it's been listed. Ask what's already been reduced. In my experience, patience is worth real money above $2M and close to nothing below it.

Before you restart your search

The national coverage isn't wrong, it's just averaged across a country that includes a lot of places nothing like this one. Read it, then check whether it describes your actual price band on your actual street.

If you've been waiting for those headlines to show up in your neighborhood, we're happy to pull the real numbers for the specific areas you're watching and tell you honestly whether they have. No pressure, no pitch.

Bernice DeVries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group | Costa Mesa & Newport Beach