Sellers Are Cutting Prices. In Orange County, Watch Which Ones.

Nationally, July brought the lowest list prices in five years. Locally, the median sale price went up 5.4%. Both are true, and the gap tells you something useful.

There's a national story right now that more than 4 in 10 sellers are dropping their price. It's accurate. It also describes a market that looks very little like ours.

What the national data is actually saying

Roughly 41% of listings across the country took a price reduction this summer, close to last year's pace. July also produced the lowest median list price of any July in five years.

Neither number means values are falling. It means sellers stopped testing high and started pricing to what buyers will realistically pay.

That's a reasonable read of most of the country. Orange County is not most of the country.

Prices here went up

C.A.R. put the Orange County median existing single-family price at $1.475 million in July, up 5.4% from a year ago. Sales-to-list ratio countywide: 99.5%.

Sellers here are getting nearly all of their asking price. So where are all the price cuts?

The 98-day market that sells in two weeks

Here's the number that explains everything. Expected Market Time in Orange County sits at 98 days, according to Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing. That sounds slow.

But homes that actually closed between $1 million and $1.5 million went into escrow in 11 to 14 days. At 100% of list price.

Both figures come from the same market. The 98-day average is being dragged by listings that came out too high and have been sitting since spring. Correctly priced homes are moving in under two weeks.

So yes, price cuts are happening in Costa Mesa and Newport Beach. They're happening to homes that were mispriced on day one. That's a different thing than sellers offering buyers a discount.

What we tell clients: if a home has been sitting for 90 days and just took a reduction, you're not getting a deal. You're watching a seller arrive at the price the home was always worth.

Where the negotiating room actually is

This is where the national story flips locally. Nationally, price flexibility is showing up for entry-level and mid-market buyers. Here, it's the opposite.

Look at how sales-to-list ratios move as you go up:

• $750K to $1.5M: closing at 100% of list, 11 to 18 days on market
• $2M to $2.5M: 97.6% of list, 22 days
• $4M to $6M: 96.9% of list, 48 days

On a $5 million Newport Beach or Corona del Mar purchase, that spread is real money. Newport Beach currently carries a $4.8 million median list price with a 152-day market time. Newport Coast, 169 days. Costa Mesa, at a $1.5 million median list, is running 70 days.

In my experience, the buyers finding genuine leverage right now are the ones shopping above $2 million, not below it.

One caution on the upper end

That window is closing. Luxury demand jumped 13% in the second half of August while inventory fell, pulling market time for homes above $2.5 million from 181 days down to 155, then lower again by month's end.

The softness at the top is real. It's also thinner than it was 60 days ago.

What to take from this

If you've been reading national headlines and assuming Orange County sellers are ready to meet you halfway, adjust the expectation. Under $1.5 million, price it right or lose it fast, from either side of the transaction.

Above $2 million, there is room. Fewer buyers are competing, sellers have been waiting longer, and the numbers back up an offer below asking.

Knowing which market you're in is most of the work.

If you're trying to figure out where your price range actually sits in all this, we'd love to talk it through. No pressure, no pitch, just an honest read on what you're walking into.

Bernice Devries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group — Costa Mesa & Newport Beach