There Are More Homes for Sale in Orange County. Here's Why.

It isn't a wave of new sellers. Homes are taking a little longer to find a buyer, and that changes the plan on both sides of a move.

There are more homes for sale in Orange County than there were a year ago. If you're planning a move this fall or winter, the reason matters, because it shapes how you price, how you shop and how you set your timeline.

Not more sellers, fewer sales

In September, Orange County had 4,735 active listings, about 4% more than a year earlier, according to Realtor.com's Orange County listing data. You might guess a wave of owners decided to sell. They didn't. New listings were essentially flat: 2,114, compared with 2,090 last September.

The change is on the buyer side. The number of homes under contract fell about 18%, to 1,655. Homes are coming on at the usual pace. Fewer are leaving.

Rates explain most of it. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% this week, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.19% a year ago. When the payment jumps, some buyers wait, and the homes they would have bought stay on the market longer.

How long Orange County homes are taking to sell

The typical Orange County listing spent 53 days on the market in September, according to Realtor.com. In September 2021, when rates were near record lows, it was 37.

Compared with 2021, that's a real slowdown. But 2021 was the outlier. In September 2019 the figure was 57 days, and last September it was also 57. Today's pace sits close to the pre-pandemic norm.

Homes that actually sold moved faster. In its September home sales report, the California Association of Realtors put Orange County's median time to sell at 30 days, slightly quicker than 33 a year earlier. Realtor.com counts every listing, including the ones still waiting. C.A.R. counts only homes that sold. Much of the gap between 30 and 53 days is listings that haven't found their buyer yet.

You may have seen bigger numbers here lately, like the 101-day Expected Market Time we shared on October 8. That measures something different: how long it would take to sell every listing at the current pace of sales.

What we tell sellers this fall

Prices have held up so far. C.A.R.'s Orange County median sale price was $1.48 million in September, up 5.6% from a year earlier. Sales slipped 2%, compared with 6.5% statewide.

What has changed is the comparison. A buyer touring this weekend has more homes to weigh against yours, including some that have been sitting for weeks.

• Plan for a month, not a weekend. Build your move, your next purchase and any rent-back around a realistic timeline. If you're buying next, talk through contingency options early.
• Win the first two weeks. Price, condition and photos do their heaviest lifting at launch. We covered why in our post on price cuts in Orange County.
• Have answers ready. Permits, inspection reports and HOA documents on hand. Buyers with options move on from homes that make them wait.
• Fall thins the field. Last year, Orange County's active listings fell by about a third from September to December, and December brought about half as many new listings as September.

What it means if you're buying

More choice, and more time to decide. A home that's been listed for a month or more may come with a seller open to talking about repairs, closing costs or a credit toward buying down your rate. Not every seller will, but the conversation is easier than it was a few years ago.

Thinking about listing this fall, or watching a home that's been sitting? We'd love to give you an honest read on how long homes like yours are taking to sell right now. No pressure, no pitch.

Bernice DeVries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group | Costa Mesa & Newport Beach