Move Now or Wait? What the 2027 Housing Forecast Means for Orange County.

Forecasters expect a steady year: rates near 7% and prices inching up. Here's how we'd read it if you own in Costa Mesa or Newport Beach.

November is when next year starts to feel close. For homeowners weighing a move, that usually raises one question: list now, or wait and see what 2027 brings? The 2027 housing forecast is in, and it's quieter than you might expect.

What the 2027 housing forecast says about rates

Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Wells Fargo all see the 30-year fixed rate holding in a fairly narrow band through next year. As of late October, their forecasts for the end of 2027 ranged from about 6.9% to 7.5%.

That's close to where we are now. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.11% this week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. That's the fourth straight weekly decline and down from the 7.18% we shared last week, though still well above the 6.24% of a year ago.

Lenders lean a little higher. In a recent HousingWire survey, 70% of mortgage executives said they expect rates around 7.5% or above six months from now. Inflation data came in hotter than expected this week, and the Federal Reserve meets again December 9. Mortgage rates don't move in lockstep with the Fed, but they do react to inflation.

Home prices: still rising, just slowly

Fannie Mae, the MBA and Wells Fargo forecast national home prices rising about 1% to 1.5% a year through 2027. None of them calls for a drop.

California looks similar. The California Association of Realtors' 2027 housing market forecast expects the state's median price to rise 1.4% next year, to $894,400, after an estimated 0.8% gain this year. C.A.R. also expects sales to pick up about 3.7%.

Orange County has been firmer. Redfin's October median for the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine metro, which is Orange County, was about $1.23 million, up 2.9% from a year earlier. That's a single month, and it runs ahead of the 0.6% three-month figure we shared last week, so we'd read it as "holding steady," not "taking off." The bigger change is demand. Pending sales were down 22% from last October.

Why we hold forecasts loosely

A forecast is a sensible middle guess, not a promise. A year ago, C.A.R. expected California's median price to rise 3.6% in 2026, with rates around 6.0%. Its latest estimate for this year is 0.8%, with rates averaging 6.6%. Rates came in higher, and price growth came in lower.

The new 2027 forecast assumes rates stay near 6.6%, below this week's 7.11%. If rates hold closer to 7%, next year's sales rebound may be slower than projected. That's the number we'll be watching.

What a steady year means for your move

When the market isn't expected to swing much, there's less to time. The decision comes back to your own plans.

• Selling in the next few months? The forecasts don't point to a price jump worth waiting for or a drop worth racing ahead of. With fewer buyers in contract, preparation and the right price from day one matter more than the calendar.
• Moving up or down within Orange County? You sell and buy in the same market. When prices move slowly, the gap between the two is easier to plan around.
• Buying? Good questions for your lender: how your credit score affects your rate, which loan programs fit your situation, and what paying points would cost compared with how long you plan to stay.
• Staying put? A slow, steady outlook doesn't call for any change.

Planning a move for next year, or just want an honest read on your timing? We'd love to talk it through. No pressure, no pitch.

This post is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice. Kastell Real Estate Group is not a mortgage lender. Rates and forecasts shown come from published surveys and third-party projections, not a quote or an offer of credit. Talk with a licensed mortgage professional about your situation.

Bernice DeVries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group | Costa Mesa & Newport Beach