The Best Week to Buy a Home Is Here. Orange County Gets Its Own Version.

The national calendar lines up with ours this year. Who it helps most is a different story.

Every fall, a national listing site crunches the data and names the single best week of the year to buy a home. For 2026, it's September 27 through October 3, and for once the calendar actually fits Orange County.

The reasons it fits look different here, though. So does who benefits.

Yes, the timing applies here

The report found that 14 of the 50 largest metros share the national best week. Los Angeles is one of them, and Orange County falls inside that metro region.

In those aligned markets, buyers have historically seen:

• about 17.6% more listings than a typical week
• competition roughly 36% below the annual peak
• about two extra weeks on market
• list prices 5.7% under their seasonal high

The headline savings figure of about $14,000 is based on a $416,000 national median, which isn't our price point. The same 3.5% dip on a $1.6 million Costa Mesa home, right around the city's recent single-family median, works out closer to $56,000. That's real money, but only if the seasonal pattern shows up on the home you actually want.

Here, the edge is fewer rivals, not more listings

Nationally, inventory just reached its highest level in more than a decade, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Orange County is running a different script.

Our inventory climbed from roughly 2,800 homes in January to about 5,200 in early August, then started drifting lower. Local sellers typically pull back in October and November, and supply usually bottoms out in the new year.

So don't expect a wave of fresh choices this fall. What you can expect is fewer people competing for the homes that are already here.

Rates just made the window more interesting

Mortgage rates are sitting above 7.2%, their highest level since early 2025, according to weekly tracking from Reports on Housing.

Buyers noticed. Countywide pending sales dipped below 1,800 for the first time since mid-February. Across Southern California, expected market time stretched to 124 days, the slowest pace since January.

Our market usually cools in November and December, but this year the slowdown arrived early. For buyers who can still make the monthly payment work, that's a quiet opportunity.

Where the room actually is

National coverage tends to treat the housing market as one thing. Orange County is really several markets, and the fall discount isn't spread evenly across them.

• Under $1 million. This is the most rate-sensitive band, at a median of about 45 days on market with a growing listing count. We expect price reductions to show up here first.
• $1 million to $2 million. This is still the fastest-moving band in the county, at around 40 days. Costa Mesa single-family homes that sold over the past six months did so in a median of just 12 days. Seasonal discounts are thinnest here.
• $2 million and up. This is where buyers have room. Above $2.5 million, homes have been closing about 3.4% below asking, compared with roughly 1.5% below that line.

Newport Beach shows the split clearly. Single-family homes sold at a median near $4.3 million in about 24 days, while the active median sits closer to $6.5 million at 67 days. The homes that sit are usually priced on hope, and that's where patient buyers can open a conversation.

You don't have to hit one exact week

The same report found that 42 of the 50 largest metros have their best week within a month of the national one. Think of it as a season, not a deadline.

In my experience, the buyers who do best this time of year aren't the ones who circled a date. They're the ones who were ready when the right home hit day 45 and the seller started listening.

How we'd use the next few weeks

• Get pre-approved at today's rates. Run the payment at 7% or higher so you know your real ceiling.
• Watch days on market within your price band. A home at 60 days in a band where similar homes sell in two weeks is telling you something.
• Match your offer to the segment. An aggressive number lands very differently on a Costa Mesa condo than on a $5 million home in Corona del Mar.
• Plan to close before the holidays. Lining up your lender and inspector now keeps December calm.

If you've been waiting for the market to give you a little room, this fall might be it, depending on where you're shopping. We'd love to walk you through what your price range looks like right now. No pressure, no pitch.

Bernice Devries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group | Costa Mesa & Newport Beach