National Prices Just Slipped. Here's What Orange County Home Prices Are Doing.

A tenth of a percent made the headlines. The number that matters more to homeowners here is the one your next buyer sees every month.

One-tenth of one percent. That's how far the typical U.S. home sale price fell from a year earlier, and it was enough to make news. Here's what it means for Orange County home prices, and for you if you own here.

Behind the headline

In the four weeks ending October 25, the national median sale price was $389,601, down 0.1%, according to Redfin's latest housing market update. It's the second straight week of small declines, the first in more than three years.

The bigger change is demand. Pending sales fell 15.9% from a year ago, the lowest level in Redfin's records, which go back to 2021. Some owners are stepping back too, with new listings down 4%. National supply sits at 4.5 months, which is considered balanced.

Where Orange County home prices stand

The short answer: not down, at least through September.

Redfin's Orange County median was about $1.2 million for the three months ending in September, up 0.6% from a year earlier. Costa Mesa was about $1.55 million, up 3.8%. NAR's third-quarter metro report puts the county at $1.47 million, up 5.0%, the second most expensive metro in the country.

Why two county numbers? NAR counts single-family homes only. Redfin counts all home types, including condos.

One honest caveat: these are closed sales, and most went under contract weeks earlier. C.A.R.'s October numbers, due later this month, are the next read.

Your ZIP code isn't the county

A countywide median hides a lot. Attom, a third data source, showed Orange County's median up 3% in July, yet prices fell in 35 of the 83 ZIP codes with sales, the Orange County Register reported. One month in one ZIP can be a handful of sales. The point is that the county's number isn't your home's number.

Cities differ too. In September, Costa Mesa homes sold for about 98.9% of list price and Newport Beach homes for about 96.9%, according to Redfin. Those won't match the August Reports on Housing figures we shared October 8 (100% and 96.5%), a different source and month.

The real story is the payment

Prices have barely moved. Payments have. Redfin's typical national payment is up 10.7% from a year ago, because rates are. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.18% this week, according to Freddie Mac. That's three straight weekly declines, but it's still well above the 6.22% of a year ago.

Here's an illustration. On a $1.2 million home with 20% down, principal and interest come to about $5,890 a month at last year's rate and about $6,500 at this week's. That's roughly $610 more for the same house. A buyer holding to last year's payment would be shopping closer to $1.09 million, about 9% lower.

These figures use Freddie Mac's survey averages and cover principal and interest only, before taxes and insurance. They aren't a quote or an offer of credit, and your actual rate depends on your lender. They aren't a price forecast, just the math your buyer brings to the showing.

What we tell homeowners

• Not selling? A national headline doesn't tell you what your home is worth.
• Selling soon? Your buyer is shopping a monthly payment, so price for this fall's buyer. We covered timing in our post on more homes for sale in Orange County.
• Buying? The payment is still the hurdle, but fewer buyers can mean more room to talk. Ask your lender how this week's rate changes your numbers.

Curious what your own street is doing? We'd love to pull the recent sales and give you an honest read. No pressure, no pitch.

This post is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice. Kastell Real Estate Group is not a mortgage lender. Rates and payments shown are illustrations based on published survey averages, not a quote or an offer of credit. Talk with a licensed mortgage professional about your situation.

Bernice DeVries | Broker | Kastell Real Estate Group | Costa Mesa & Newport Beach